(2017-04-15) Caulfield Polarization And Expressive Responding

Mike Caulfield on Polarization and Expressive Responding

after the election, Republican confidence in the economy skyrocketed, from -46 to +27. Meanwhile, Democratic confidence moderately declined. But what does that mean, really? Does that mean that partisan identity is so strong that people literally change their opinion overnight?

But here’s car and light truck purchases over the past eight years.

Sales bottomed out during the recession, then stedily increased. As the chart shows, when you’re nervous about the economy, you don’t run out and buy a new car.

We can see the purchase of cars as a proxy for not what people want to express, but what they actually believe.

Polls, in other words, might slowly be becoming junk. We don’t actually know how many people believe Obama was a Muslim, or how many people believe the DNC rigged the election. The answer is surely some people believe each thing, but they are lumped together with people who use the question as a general proxy for expressing something else, as a way of advancing what is seen as a team agenda.