All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful

All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful... sometimes

George Box 1976 article:

• 2.3 Parsimony: Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a "correct" one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena (Occam's Razor). Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.
• 2.4 Worrying Selectively: Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is importantly wrong. It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers abroad.
• (Wrong Problem, Most Important Task)

Some are just Wanking

What defines Useful? Accurately-Predictive? Actionable, leading to Outcome?

• note OODA feedback loop - Thinking in Bets

Often the usefulness is more context-dependent than you think.

Generative? You just made another model.

cf model agnosticism