Scott Alexander: Introducing AI 2027. In 2021, a researcher named Daniel Kokotajlo published a blog post called “What 2026 Looks Like”, where he laid out what he thought would happen in AI over the next five years. (more)

Matthew Yglesias: How to be less full of shit. In terms of my personal growth, I think the most important book I read in 2020 was Philip Tetlock’s which came out five years ago...somehow the title of Superforecasting turned me off of reading it when it first came out. But it’s a really good book. (more)

Bryan CaplanTackling Tetlock. Philip Tetlock, one of my favorite social scientists, is making waves with his new book, Expert Political Judgment. Tetlock spent two decades asking hundreds of political experts to make predictions about hundreds of issues. (more)

Bryan Caplan: Two Flawless Articles on Overconfidence. Well, they’re very good, anyway. The first is a 1999 gem by Philip Tetlock: “Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?” (American Journal of Political Science 43(2): 335-66). The second is a 2005 piece by Erik Hoelzl and Aldo Rustichini: “Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money on It?” (Economic Journal 115: 305-318). (more)

Andrew Gelman: Thinking fast, slow, and not at all: System 3 jumps the shark. (more)

Zvi Mowshowitz on AI 2027: Responses. Yesterday I covered Dwarkesh Patel’s excellent podcast coverage of AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander. Today covers the reactions of others. (more)

Bryan Caplan: My Defense of Experts Against the Leading Expert. Forget “the Best of 2007”; Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment may well be the best book ever written on political psychology. (See here for an earlier discussion). I say this even though I’m a big defender of experts, and Tetlock’s book is usually interpreted as a grand debunking of experts’ pretensions. (more)

Cate Hall: Rightness is a prison. *We just wrapped up our first quarterly reviews for Astera’s spring residency cohort, and one of my favorite things to come out of it was this statement by resident Edwin Kite: “Based on past completed projects of comparable ambition, it is near certain that our initial scientific assumptions are wrong.” (more)

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I'm removing a ceiling light fixture so a medallion can be mounted. Because otherwise the electrician has nothing to do while waiting for paint/glue to dry. (more)

high agency - a personality trait (more)

Bending Spoons hits $11B valuation after raising $710M. The company stated that the new capital will be used to enhance its proprietary technology stack and expand its AI infrastructure (more)

Bending Spoons Buys Video Platform Vimeo for $1.38 Billion. Vimeo, once a significant player in the streaming video space, has lost massive ground to other platforms, including YouTube, in recent years. Rather than fight a losing battle in the creator space, Vimeo has catered more toward business and enterprise users lately. (more)

Best known for her book The Death And Life Of Great American Cities. She lived in Greenwich Village when she wrote it. (more)

Gary Klein (born February 5, 1944, in New York City, New York, U.S.) is a research psychologist famous for pioneering in the field of naturalistic decision making.[1] By studying experts such as firefighters in their natural environment, he discovered that laboratory models of decision making could not describe it under uncertainty. His recognition-primed decision (RPD) model has influenced changes in the ways the Marines and Army train their officers to make decisions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_A._Klein (more)

book by Jane Jacobs, 1969, ISBN:0-394-70584-X (more)

aka Twitter (more)

X.AI LLC, doing business as xAI, is a subsidiary of the American spaceflight company SpaceX working in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI) and social media.[7][8][9] The company's flagship products are the generative AI chatbot Grok and the social network X, which was acquired in March 2025 by xAI.[10] It has also constructed the Colossus supercomputer and launched data center business[11][12]. The company will develop a humanoid AI platform called Macrohard, intended for integration into future robotic workforce across a range of applications, current focus is on developing virtual assistants[13][14]. Prior to being acquired by SpaceX in 2026, xAI's current assets were part of a standalone corporation named X.AI Corp., founded by Elon Musk and 11 researchers in 2023. xAI was announced to be folded into SpaceX on May 6, 2026, with Grok and X now being part of the company's AI division. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XAI_(company)

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transport services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 by entrepreneur Elon Musk with the goal of reducing space transportation costs and enabling the colonization of Mars.[8] SpaceX has since developed the Falcon launch vehicle family and the Dragon spacecraft family, which both currently deliver payloads into Earth orbit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX (Space Program) (more)

Late capitalism, late-stage capitalism, or end-stage capitalism is a term first used in print by German economist Werner Sombart around the turn of the 20th century.[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_capitalism (more)