Claims All The Way Down

Few statements about the real world are "true": All Models Are Wrong. Even history is a model/narrative. But we make Claims all the time anyway. We try to call some of them "facts" or "assumptions" or "beliefs" or "hypothesis" or "models" as though those were well-distinguished things, or at a "hypothesis" is "based on" facts and assumptions. But the Nature of Truth is messier than that.

Thinking in Bets is more honest/realistic/flexible.

• "since this is Settled Science in the physical sciences, I'd give 99% odds"
• "this is the standard history of time X, I'll give that 80%"
• "applying a psychological theory to am individual or specific group? 53%"

But even that framing has issues. "All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful", and Usefulness is context-specific.

• if you want to say someone's claim is wrong, you probably need to make a specific counter-claim